Fantasy Baseball Waiver Spotlight: Jordan Schafer

Now that 22-year-old Jordan Schafer has won the starting center fielder job in Atlanta, fantasy owners are wondering if they should pick him up. So let’s take a look at close look at the youngster.

Background
Atlanta drafted Schafer out of high school in the third round of the 2005 amateur draft. He played rookie ball in 2005 then joined Class A for 2006 and 2007 before moving up to Double-A last year. (Note that he’s skipping over Triple A.) Over those four years in the minors, his numbers were as follows: .270 AVG, .339 OBP, .447 SLG, .786 OPS. He swiped 63 bases and smacked 36 long balls in 1432 at-bats. In other words, he averaged about 20 steals and 12 HR per 500 AB. Last year, he served a 50-game suspension for suspected HGH use (which he denied) then went on to hit .269/.378/.471/.849 with 10 HR and 12 SB in 297 AB for Double-A Mississippi. Baseball America touted him as the Braves’ top prospect and MLB’s 25th-ranked prospect for 2008.

This spring, he grabbed hold of the starting job by leading the Braves in hits (22) and steals (five). He tied for the team lead in runs (13) and ranked second in total bases (32). He hit .333 with one homer.

Analysis
Clearly, Schafer is Atlanta’s present and future at CF and promises to be a solid major leaguer with ample fantasy value. In fact, he’s sometimes compared to Grady Sizemore. But how much can he contribute to your fantasy team right now? Well, the jump from Double-A to the Bigs and the HGH suspension are cause for concern. Can he possibly maintain a spring performance that far surpassed his minor-league production once he has to face major league pitchers armed with scouting reports? If he was indeed using HGH, will he lose power if he is no longer using it?

Schafer’s upside for this season is probably .270/.350/.470 with 13 HR, 60 runs, 55 RBI and 24 SB. His downside is, well, losing the job. Given his star potential and good defensive skills, however, he’ll likely hold onto the job unless he struggles considerably. All things considered, a reasonable projection would be .260/.340/.445 with 10 HR, 55 runs, 50 RBI, and 20 SB.

Verdict
Those in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues--especially ones that use OBP instead of AVG--could find a use for Schafer. Keeper leaguers should jump all over the kid.