Thursday, July 2, 2009

FSWA League Update

For those of you who’ve been asking about my FSWA Industry Insiders League, here’s an update.

Standings
As of last night, I dropped out of first place for the first time in weeks. League Commissioner Perry Missner from ProFantasySports.com, who’s been nipping at my heels, leapfrogged over me on the strength of Johnny Cueto’s dominant outing against the D-Backs (0 runs, 1 hit, 4 BB, and 8 K in 6 IP).

Ultimately I think it will be a battle between our two squads. He also has a nice stable of relievers, which is key in this league given the limit on starts. I’m in better shape in terms of starts. (I’ve used 48% of mine, and he’s used 52% of his.) But a lot will depend on how the blockbuster deal he consummated just today pans out. He dealt Adrian Gonzalez, Jeter, and J.P. Howell for ManRam. At first glance, it looks like he’s giving up way too much, but maybe not. He’ll likely replace Gonzalez at CI with Aramis Ramirez (whom he has coming off the DL) and Jeter with Michael Young (who’s on his bench). So that will hurt him in SB, but it will allow him to bench/dump Willy Taveras or Milton Bradley in favor of Mannywood. Of course, if Manny gets caught using female fertility drugs, gets locked up for slamming an elderly gentleman to the ground, or just decides to take a month off, it won’t be much of a race after all.

Key Strategies
This is a strange league. It uses OBP and SLG instead of AVG and HR. To be honest, I didn’t realize this until halfway through the draft. I read that the league was “of the 5x5 roto variety” and assumed that meant the typical categories. I also thought that, as writers, we’d want to go with the most common format, so we could relate to the highest percentage of readers. Still, that’s no excuse for breaking the cardinal rule: “Always read your league settings!”

Needless to say, the owners were very affected by these odd settings, putting a lot of stock—perhaps too much—into guys who are much better in OBP than AVG, etc. However, when I did finally read the ill-publicized settings, I realized that there was a much more significant variation: a limit on games started. Not on innings pitched, mind you, but starts. So, my main strategy quickly became to stuff my roster full of good relievers and run them out there as much as possible to beef up Ws and Ks and lower ERA and WHIP. (I currently have nine RPs, which allows me to fill all nine of my P slots, even on days I have no SPs going.)

That strategy has obviously served me well, as my points for wins, Ks, saves, ERA, and WHIP are 12, 11.5, 4, 7, and 8 respectively. (As you can see, I’m weak in saves. I would have secured more closers had I read the settings prior to the draft!) I expect to climb in ERA and WHIP now that Verlander, Lester, and Beckett seem to be on track.

Teams that did not employ this strategy are pretty much doomed. The third place team has already used up 61% of his starts for the year. So he is poised for a nose dive come September. If he’s hoping to grab good relievers once he hits the limit, he won’t find much. Most of them are on my roster!

The other strategy I had going in was to draft SS, 2B, C, C in the first four rounds, as I mentioned in my article Dominating through Damage Control. I was able to execute this strategy, getting Hanley, Kinsler, Russell Martin, and V-Mart. Overall, it's worked out well. Hanley, Kinsler, and V-Mart have been raking all year, so I don’t have to worry about those traditionally weak positions. In fact, I wish I'd grabbed another MI early, so I didn’t have to start Adam Kennedy. Of course, Russell Martin has been a colossal disappointment—dude has just one long ball on the season and just one stinking RBI in the last month—but that’s fantasy baseball for you!

Key Pickups
Outside of Scott Rolen, my key pickups were the relievers I alluded to earlier: Andrew Bailey, Rafael Soriano, Ramon Ramirez, Mark DiFelice, Clay Zavada, Alfredo Aceves, Sergio Romo, and Mitch Stetter. Those guys have combined for 19 wins and 15 saves. Five of them have a WHIP under 1.02. And five have struck out more than a batter per inning. In fact, Stetter, Soriano, and Bailey are well over that mark. They are the reason that I am on top in wins and Ks despite having the lowest number of starts in the league. And they are the reason I am doing well in ERA and WHIP despite slow starts from Lester, Beckett, and Verlander.

Key Trades
I recently traded Mike Lowell and John Danks for Adam Dunn. Lowell was tailing off, so I figured I could replace him with Rolen (whom I was using at UTIL) and stick Dunn in the UTIL spot to give me a nice boost in SLG. I also was looking to unload one of my starters in order to stay under the max-starts pace. With Verlander, Lester, Beckett, Joba, and Ryan Dempster on my roster, I figured Danks was expendable.

Just a couple of days after the trade was accepted, Lowell went on the shelf, so it looks like I did the right thing. With the extra roster spot, I grabbed Mitch Stetter, whom I’d been coveting.

Worst Moves
The move I clearly regret most is dumping Justin Upton early (April 15 to be exact). At that time, he wasn’t playing every day, and it was unclear when he might earn a full-time role; so I didn’t think I could afford to hold onto him given the limited bench space. (We have five bench spots, but I use them all for pitchers to execute my aforementioned strategy.) Of course, it wasn’t long before the phenom broke out. Now he’s batting .315 and slugging .568 with 14 HR and 10 SB, while I’m hoping that Scott Hairston can recapture the magic he had early in the season and give me production out of that fifth OF slot. The silver lining is that I dumped him for Andrew Bailey, who’s obviously been a stud.

The other mistake I made was dumping Leo Nunez…literally hours before word came down that Matt Lindstrom was hitting the DL. This was especially painful given that saves is the category where I have the most growth potential. Ironically, I’d been touting Nunez all year long. But he was DTD with an ankle injury and had been struggling, so I figured it was time to stop praying for a Lindstrom demotion and grab someone with better numbers (Alfredo Aceves). Of course, since that time, Nunez has picked up two saves while not allowing a run. Fiddlesticks!

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