Friday, November 6, 2009

2009-10 Fantasy Basketball Playoff Schedule Analysis

The games-per-week schedule grid I posted recently reveals some important trends during the fantasy hoops regular season and the playoffs. In this post, I’ll address the playoffs. Assuming a playoff period from Week 22 to Week 25, here’s how it breaks down:


Teams with 14 games: Houston, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington
Teams with 13 games: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, New Jersey
Teams with 12 games: Denver, Detroit, Indiana, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, Utah
Teams with 11 games: Cleveland, New Orleans, Portland


Conclusions

  • This is a devastating—potentially fatal—blow to those of you who own of LeBron or Chris Paul. You likely didn’t make your second pick until the end of Round 2, so you rely heavily on your prized stud. Painful as it may be, you should seriously consider making a trade before other owners start to look ahead to the playoffs. Of course, that’s not to say a bad trade! Dealing one of those beasts straight up for a lesser player would defeat the purpose. You’ll need to get a legit stud (with a good playoff schedule) plus one or preferably two other solid players. The good news is that this shouldn’t be overly difficult given owners’ adoration of LBJ and CP3.

  • Other big-name players with unfortunate playoff schedules include Kobe Bryant, Brandon Roy, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade, Danny Granger, Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony, and David Lee. Again, think about moving them at some point for comparable players with better playoff schedules.

  • The Knicks are the only team with just two games in Week 22. Unless you earn a bye, that’s a major problem for owners of David Lee. All the more reason to deal the double-double machine.

  • Studs with favorable playoff schedules include Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Bosh, Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Tim Duncan. Try to get a hold of those guys once you’re fairly assured of a playoff berth.

  • When considering adds and drops toward the end of the season, be sure to factor the playoff schedule into your decisions. Guys like Jarrett Jack, Shane Battier, and Chuck Hayes could come in handy down the stretch.

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