Fantasy Baseball Auctions: Don't Pay Top Dollar!

Usually in fantasy baseball auctions, the elite studs go for astronomical prices…and understandably so. For example, in my Baseball Bloggers Alliance experts league (standard 5x5), Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez went for $50 a piece (to the same high-rolling owner, as a matter of fact). This strategy can work if you know much more about sleepers and prospects than your leaguemates and can therefore get good value for cheap at the end of the draft and fill holes with smart pickups throughout the season. If, however, your league is comprised of crafty veteran fantasy owners who know their stuff, this strategy has some clear disadvantages:

• Lack of upside. For one thing, when you pay top dollar for a player, the odds that the player will outperform his price are minimal. For example, if you pay $50 for Pujols, the best-case scenario is that he has a $50, MVP-type year, right? By contrast, let’s say you spent that money on two $20 guys and a $10 with upside. If the $20 guys give you $25 value, and the $10 guy gives you $15 value, you’ve essentially gotten $65 for your $50.
• All eggs in one basket. Another problem with doling out so much cash for one stud is that you become overly dependent on a single player. If that stud gets hurt or suspended or just has an off year, your season is as done as Mike Myers’ after The Love Guru. If, on the other hand, you’ve diversified your portfolio so to speak, you have a much better chance of replacing the production of a single player via free agency or trade.
• More cheap players = more risk. The more high-priced players you have, the more low-priced players you’ll obviously need to stay under the cap. And the problem with low-priced players is that they are question marks. They may exceed expectations…or they may end up losing their starting gig. You may unearth some gems for short money, in which case your team will likely be in good shape. On the flip side, however, you may wind up with holes you are unable to fill all season. Bottom line is that the more cheap players you have, the more risk you carry. Of course, you could carry just as much or more risk with more expensive guys like Jose Reyes or David Ortiz, but that’s not advisable either unless you can get them at an irresistible discount. A lineup with many proven, dependable $12 - $26 hitters will carry the least amount of risk. If those players have upside, all the better.

So consider the makeup of your league before overspending on big guns.