Slow Auction Day 6

Today's winning bids in the BBA league:

Shane Victorino - $11
Mark Buehrle - $10
Jay Bruce - $17
James Shields - $14
B.J. Upton - $20
Ubaldo Jimenez - $17
Kendry Morales - $27 (Roto Rebel)
Troy Tulowitzki - $35
Chris Carpenter - $19
Matt Cain - $16
Roy Oswalt - $10
Ryan Dempster - $8
Adam Wainwright - $21
Jason Heyward - $7
Joe Nathan - $18
Ricky Nolasco - $16
Carlos Marmol - $14
Jonathan Broxton - $17
Josh Beckett - $17
Joakim Soria - $18
Josh Johnson - $16
Adam Dunn - $16
Clayton Kershaw - $19
John Lackey - $11
Jonathan Papelbon - $17
Jacoby Ellsbury - $25
Andre Ethier - $16
Ryan Zimmerman - $25
Derrek Lee - $17
Cole Hamels - $18
Jair Jurrjens - $9
Shin-Soo Choo - $16
Jason Bartlett - $14
Wandy Rodriguez - $14
Brett Anderson - $15
Tommy Hanson - $19
Mark Reynolds - $21

Observations

• I almost had Morales for $23 but was forced to make a tough decision when the bid was upped to $26. Should I go the extra mile for Morales, turn my focus to Derrek Lee (who was sitting at $17), or target a more economical option like Garrett Jones? Ultimately, my decision was based on past lessons learned: (1) You better spend your money before there's nothing left worth spending it on, and (2) you're best served paying for hitting. So I coughed up the $27 for Morales. I don't think I'll regret it.
• Tulowitzki may wind up having a career year, but I was surprised he commanded $35...especially considering that Rollins went for $27, and I got Jeter for $26.
• Reynolds will probably live up to the $21, but his strikeout rate is cause for concern.

More tomorrow....

Slow Auction Day 5

Today's winning bids in the BBA league:

C.C. Sabathia - $25
Adrian Beltre - $18 (Roto Rebel)
Dan Haren - $27
Justin Verlander - $24
Yadier Molina - $8
Cliff Lee - $20
Chone Figgins - $13
Aramis Ramirez - $17
Curtis Granderson - $19
Jake Peavy - $20
Johan Santana - $26
Torii Hunter - $13
Carlos Lee - $19
Ichiro Suzuki - $20
Asdrubal Cabrera - $13

Observations

• I was hoping to get a better bargain on Beltre. In fact, I thought I might steal him for just $8 until someone outbid me with around four hours remaining. (Remember, you have to be the high bidder for 24 hours to win the auction.) From there it turned into a bidding war, and I reluctantly went to $18 for two reasons: (1) All of the other third basemen I like were already off the board or priced too high. (2) I have high hopes for Beltre now that he's healthy and will be hitting in a much friendlier park and more potent lineup. I think he could hit .275 with 25-30 HR and 90 RBI. That said, Aramis for $17 is a better deal.
• Figgins for $13 is also a better deal than I got for Beltre, but with all the steals I have (Bourn, McCutchen, Phillips, and Jeter), I needed to get more of a power hitter.
• Outfielders are going for a little less than expected here. Dampens my deals on McCutchen and Bourn a bit.
• Cliff Lee is a good deal at $20. I'm not in the market for expensive starters, though.
• $20 is a big gamble on Peavy given the move to the AL and the injury risk.

More tomorrow....

Slow Auction Day 4

Lot of guys came off the board in my BBA league today:

Trevor Hoffman - $11 (Roto Rebel)
Alexei Ramirez - $16 (Roto Rebel)
Victor Martinez - $24 (Roto Rebel)
Brandon Phillips - $22 (Roto Rebel)
Mariano Rivera - $18 (Roto Rebel)
Michael Bourn - $14 (Roto Rebel)
Adrian Gonzalez - $27 (Roto Rebel)
Robinson Cano - $19
Joey Votto - $23
Felix Hernandez - $28
Billy Butler - $15
Michael Cuddyer - $10
Adam Lind - $20
Jayson Werth - $22
Ian Stewart - $10
Grady Sizemore - $21
Jose Reyes - $35
Pablo Sandoval - $28
Carlos Beltran - $16
Nelson Cruz - $21
Brian Roberts - $13
Ben Zobrist - $18
Gordon Beckham - $16
Carlos Gonzalez - $12
David Ortiz - $17
Brandon Webb - $16
Matt Holliday - $31
Scott Baker - $15
Aaron Hill - $17
Justin Morneau - $22
Jason Bay - $20

Observations

• I continue to be surprised by the low prices on closers. I snagged the best closer in the game for the price I had allotted for Trevor Hoffman and then proceeded to secure Hoffman for less than Geovany Soto. I'm not sure why the reluctance to pay for saves; no matter how you slice it there are only so many to go around. Happy as I am to have wrapped up Rivera, Bailey, and Hoffman for a total of $43, I may have been better served to stick with my initial plan to target only third-tier closers. That may have saved me up to $10 while yielding almost as many saves. After all, with nine pitching slots, relievers ratios and strikeouts will be diluted. Of course, hindsight is 20-20. I had no idea closers would be devalued like this. Besides, it remains to be seen how the prices will trend once the other owners start vying for the remaining saves. Who knows, we could potentially see guys like Kerry Wood ultimately go for the same price as Bailey ($16).
• I got my other top catcher in V-Mart...at the expected price.
• I was pumped to get Phillips at $22...especially given that the other top second basemen were off the board...and I was worried that I shouldn't have let another owner win Pedroia for $24.
• I wasn't targeting Bourn but just could not let him and his 60-steal potential pass for $14.
• I paid full price for Gonzalez but I'm glad I did. Dude's a beast and will blow up if traded to a contender at the deadline. Got to be happy about getting Gonzalez and V-Mart for just $2 more than Pujols.
• $35 is just too much for a risk like Reyes coming off surgery...especially given his injury history. That's the kind of purchase that loses seasons.
• Brian Roberts would appear to be a good deal at $13, but it won't be if he continues his decline and winds up with less than 10 HR and 20 SB.

Here's what my team looks like so far:

C - Victor Martinez
C - Russell Martin
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Brandon Phillips
3B -
SS - Derek Jeter
MI - Alexei Ramirez
CI -
LF -
CF - Andrew McCutchen
RF - Nick Markakis
OF - Michael Bourn
OF -
UT -
P - Mariano Rivera
P - Andrew Bailey
P - Trevor Hoffman
P -
P -
P -
P -
P -
P -

Pretty solid so far. Of course, I'm down to $105, but that is by design. I've been very busy early. That might prevent me from taking advantage of good bargains that will arise as owners exhaust their funds, but had I held out for monster deals I would have missed out on several of the great players I picked up.

More tomorrow....

Fantasy Baseball Auctions: Don't Pay Top Dollar!

Usually in fantasy baseball auctions, the elite studs go for astronomical prices…and understandably so. For example, in my Baseball Bloggers Alliance experts league (standard 5x5), Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez went for $50 a piece (to the same high-rolling owner, as a matter of fact). This strategy can work if you know much more about sleepers and prospects than your leaguemates and can therefore get good value for cheap at the end of the draft and fill holes with smart pickups throughout the season. If, however, your league is comprised of crafty veteran fantasy owners who know their stuff, this strategy has some clear disadvantages:

• Lack of upside. For one thing, when you pay top dollar for a player, the odds that the player will outperform his price are minimal. For example, if you pay $50 for Pujols, the best-case scenario is that he has a $50, MVP-type year, right? By contrast, let’s say you spent that money on two $20 guys and a $10 with upside. If the $20 guys give you $25 value, and the $10 guy gives you $15 value, you’ve essentially gotten $65 for your $50.
• All eggs in one basket. Another problem with doling out so much cash for one stud is that you become overly dependent on a single player. If that stud gets hurt or suspended or just has an off year, your season is as done as Mike Myers’ after The Love Guru. If, on the other hand, you’ve diversified your portfolio so to speak, you have a much better chance of replacing the production of a single player via free agency or trade.
• More cheap players = more risk. The more high-priced players you have, the more low-priced players you’ll obviously need to stay under the cap. And the problem with low-priced players is that they are question marks. They may exceed expectations…or they may end up losing their starting gig. You may unearth some gems for short money, in which case your team will likely be in good shape. On the flip side, however, you may wind up with holes you are unable to fill all season. Bottom line is that the more cheap players you have, the more risk you carry. Of course, you could carry just as much or more risk with more expensive guys like Jose Reyes or David Ortiz, but that’s not advisable either unless you can get them at an irresistible discount. A lineup with many proven, dependable $12 - $26 hitters will carry the least amount of risk. If those players have upside, all the better.

So consider the makeup of your league before overspending on big guns.

Slow Auction Day 3

Here’s who went today in my BBA experts league:

Nick Markakis - $20 (Roto Rebel)
Andrew McCutchen - $13 (Roto Rebel)
Manny Ramirez - $16
Kevin Youkilis - $29
Miguel Tejada - $16
Dustin Pedroia - $24
Carl Crawford - $34
Prince Fielder - $34
Justin Upton - $32
Josh Hamilton - $21
Javier Vazquez - $22
Rafael Soriano - $17

Observations

• I was happy to get Cakes at $20. I had him valued closer to $30. I think he was a bit undervalued coming off a down year.
• I was thrilled to get McCutchen for just $13. That’s quite a steal for a guy who should amass upwards of 30 steals and 15 long balls. Could be the best deal of the draft thus far.
• $16 for Manny is a good price. He could easily produce like a $30 player. But I let him slide off the board for fear that he might show a sudden decline due to age (and possible lack of PEDs), suffer one of his famous hamstring pulls, quit on his team, or get suspended for one reason or another.
• $29 seems a bit high for Youk when you could probably get Morales, Gonzalez, or Morneau for less.
• Tejada went for what you would expect, but at his age (35) you have to worry about a dramatic dropoff.
• Pedroia at $24 is a good value given the lack of depth at second. I was tempted to outbid to shore up my 2B spot, but I’m hoping to get a deal on Brandon Phillips.
• Crawford, Fielder, Upton and Hamilton were no big surprises where they went.
• Vazquez at $22 isn’t too much higher than expected, but his past performance in the AL suggests he’ll be a bust. Better off using that money on a hitter and drafting a cheap young hurler with upside who pitches in a weak division.
• Given that Soriano went for $17 and I got Bailey for $16 yesterday, it looks like closers are going to come cheap in this league.

More tomorrow….

Slow Auction Day 2

Here are the players purchased in the second day of the BBA experts league auction:

Mark Teixeira - $37
Ryan Howard - $38
Ian Kinsler - $29
Jon Lester - $24
Ryan Braun - $42
Hanley Ramirez - $50
Geovany Soto - $12
Tim Lincecum - $36
Joe Mauer - $33
Derek Jeter - $26 (Roto Rebel)
Evan Longoria - $37
Roy Halladay - $36
Jimmy Rollins - $27
Miguel Cabrera - $38
Everth Cabrera - $7
Yovani Gallardo - $28
Elvis Andrus - $13
Yunel Escobar - $8
Zack Greinke - $30

Observations

• I was pleased to get Jeter at $26. Not that it’s a huge bargain, but I certainly didn’t overpay for him. With Hanley off the board and Reyes making me nervous, I wanted to lock up Jeter or Rollins. The dropoff is pretty steep after the top four shortstops. Is Rollins a better deal at $27? Tough to say. What I love about Jeter is that he plays in one of the most powerful lineups and one of the friendliest hitter parks in history.
• The same guy who took Pujols at $50 took Hanley at $50. Yikes! This dude throws money around like Antoine Walker! If you’re going to spend $50 on a single player, then Hanley is the right choice, but this dude has blown almost a third of his budget on two guys. I’m guessing it’s all part of a strategy, and the overpay-for-mega-studs approach has been known to work before (especially when many teams blow their budgets early, leaving a wealth of decent players available for cheap at the end), but he’ll need to pick up some quality sleepers to avoid major holes in his lineup. And if one of his big guns gets hurt, he’s screwed.
• Kinsler at $29 and Mauer at $33 were hard to let go. Those are decent prices given the lack of depth at catcher and second, but I’m holding out hope I can get solid guys like Pedroia, Phillips, and/or V-Mart for a bit less.
• Teixeira, Howard, and Miguel Cabrera were sold at slightly above market value. I bowed out of the bidding on these guys as soon as it got past the “ridiculous deal” stage. To me first base is a place where you can get good production for next to nothing.
• Halladay, Lincecum, and Greinke went at appropriate prices, but I personally don’t like to spend big money on starters. I’ve been burned by that before. You think you have a killer staff, and somehow it never pans out. Then your hitting totally sucks. Plus, I have a strategy for this league that allows me to save on starters (which I’ll reveal later).
• $28 for Gallardo may be the biggest reach of the auction to this point.
• By contrast, Andrus for $13 is probably the best value thus far.

Fantasy Baseball Auction Begins!

This year, I'm participating in the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) experts league. Pretty standard 12-team 5x5 league with two catchers, five outfielders, nine pitchers, etc. Two notable caveats: (1) three of the OF slots have to be LF, CF, and RF, and (2) lineup changes are weekly.

Another interesting aspect of the league is that it uses an online "slow" draft through Couch Managers. How this works is each team can have up to three players up for nomination at any given time. Whenever someone outbids another for a player, the auction time resets at 24 hours. So, in other words, you have to be the high bidder for a full day before you win a player! Needless to say, this can take a while...which is why we kicked it off yesterday and expect it to take at least a couple of weeks to complete.

The cool thing about that is it will allow me to give you bite-sized updates on the auction as it progresses, so you can get an idea of how players are being valued, how managers are budgeting, and what I think of it all.

So far, the following players have been purchased.

Russell Martin - $18 (Roto Rebel)
Andrew Bailey - $16 (Roto Rebel)
Albert Pujols - $50
Matt Kemp - $41
David Wright - $31
Chase Utley - $37
Alex Rodriguez - $43

My impressions? First of all I was pretty happy to get Martin at $18. Many of you know I like to get two stud catchers. As I explained in last year's article Why Catchers Matter, this not only ensures that I won't be dragged down by detrimental second-rate catchers, but it also guarantees that most other owners will. So, yeah, $18 is a small price to pay. Besides, getting a top-four player at any position for $18 has to be considered a bargain. Joe Mauer is sitting at $33 right now, and I'm debating whether to bid $34. I might be better off targeting Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, or Matt Weiters for less and using the savings elsewhere.

I was also surprised to land Bailey for just $16. I was planning on picking up some lesser closers like Trevor Hoffman or Jose Valverde for that price, so this was a bonus.

As for the other guys, I think $50 is too high for one player--even Pujols--in a league with 30-man rosters...especially if that guy plays the deepest position. This dude spent 15 percent of his budget on three percent of his roster. It's not surprising, though. In fact, I nominated Pujols in hopes that someone would exhaust a nice chunk of their funds on him. Utley, Kemp, and A-Rod also cost too much.

Wright could be a good value at $31, but I opted not to challenge that bid, because I believe I can get decent production at third for considerably less.

More updates to come....